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02/09/2012 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Pro basketball's most storied rivalry resumes in Beantown on Thursday, when the streaking Boston Celtics aim to complete a perfect five- game homestand versus the despised Los Angeles Lakers.
The Celtics (17) and Lakers (16) have accounted for 33 of the 65 NBA championships. Boston, of course, won its last title in 2007-08, when it disposed of the Lakers in six games during the NBA Finals. LA rebounded from there to win two consecutive crowns, including the '09-10 title at the expense of the C's in seven games.
Neither team has played like a powerhouse so far this season, however, with Boston looking up at Philadelphia in the Atlantic Division and the Lakers playing second fiddle to the Clippers in the Pacific.
The Celtics, however, have come on recently and enter tonight's game on a five-game winning streak, including Tuesday's 94-84 triumph over Charlotte.
Paul Pierce passed Larry Bird for second all-time on Boston's scoring list in that one when he scored 15 points to go along with nine assists and eight rebounds. With 21,797 career points, Pierce now trails only John Havlicek (26,395) in Celtics' lore.
"It was a relief. So much was hanging over me the last couple of days. Just hearing about it and knowing that you've got a game to play," said Pierce about passing Bird. "Just to be mentioned with him, with this organization, is a great honor."
Kevin Garnett led the Celtics against Charlotte with 22 points and Ray Allen chipped in 17. Rajon Rondo added a double-double with 10 points and 14 assists for the Celtics, who have won nine of their last 10.
The Lakers, meanwhile, have fallen to 1-2 on their annual Grammy road trip after Monday's 95-90 setback to the Sixers in South Philly.
Kobe Bryant scored 24 points on 4-of-6 shooting from three-point range in the first half of that one but struggled after intermission. The superstar ended with 28 points and surpassed former teammate Shaquille O'Neal for fifth place on the NBA's all-time scoring list. Bryant now has 28,601 career points. Wilt Chamberlain currently sits comfortably ahead in fourth place with 31,419 points.
"It's a huge honor," Bryant said of his latest accomplishment. "I've been very fortunate."
Andrew Bynum poured in 20 points and pulled down a game-best 20 rebounds as LA dropped its second straight contest.
"They just came after him immediately," assistant coach John Kuester, who was piloting the Lakers for the suspended Mike Brown, said, "and to Kobe's credit, what he did was try to get everyone involved. We had some great hits. When you are coming down to the end of the game, your margin of error is very small, and you have to take advantage of that. Things just didn't go our way."
Brown will be back on the bench tonight as LA tries to improve on its shaky 3-9 road mark.
LA has won three straight and five of its last six in Beantown during the regular season.
These two teams will meet again in Staples Center on March 11.
<< Habs aim to make it three straight in clash with Isles
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Montreal Canadiens will try to post their longest
winning streak in over three months when they visit the New York Islanders
tonight at Nassau Coliseum.
The Canadiens have recorded recent home wins over Winnipeg and Pi
<< OVC action pits Racers against Tigers
Murray, KY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The ninth-ranked Murray State Racers will once
again march out on the court to defend their perfect record as they host the
Tennessee State Tigers in an Ohio Valley Conference clash at the CFSB Center.
This will
<< Rivals meet up in Starkville for SEC action
Starkville, MS (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Instate rivals collide in Starkville this
evening, as the 20th-ranked Mississippi State Bulldogs play host to the Ole
Miss Rebels in an SEC affair at the Humphrey Coliseum.
Rick Stansbury's Bulldogs can't af
<< Gaels and Zags collide in key WCC affair
Spokane, WA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The 16th-ranked Saint Mary's Gaels have the
opportunity to all but end Gonzaga's reign atop the West Coast Conference, as
the two teams meet in Spokane this evening at the McCarthey Athletic Center.
Saint Mary'
Banged-up Nuggets try to snap skid vs. Warriors >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Denver Nuggets are not making excuses that injuries are
the main reason why they're mired in a season-high four-game losing streak.
"We have a lot of young talent and a lot of players with experience. We have a
long be
Nash, Suns host Rockets in the desert >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Steve Nash celebrated his 38th birthday in style the last
time out for the Phoenix Suns, who look to extend their season-high winning
streak to four straight games this evening at home versus the Houston Rockets.
Nash
Argentines set to face host Germans in Davis Cup >>
Bamberg, Germany (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Last year's runner-up Argentina will
battle host Germany in an opening-round Davis Cup tie this weekend.
The best-of-five affair will commence with a pair of opening singles rubbers
on Friday, as
Wings, Leafs to meet in 2013 Winter Classic at the Big House >>
Detroit, MI (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Detroit Red Wings and Toronto Maple Leafs
will play in the 2013 Winter Classic at Michigan Stadium in Ann Arbor.
NHL commissioner Gary Bettman made the announcement Thursday at Comerica Park
in Detroit,
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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